Andrew Goodacre, chief executive of the British Independent Retailers Association (BIRA), has warned that the costs of higher employer National Insurance contributions and an “inflation-busting” rise in the minimum wage will hit high street retailers. He cites a letter signed by more than 80 retailers and sent to the Chancellor, noting that it warns of “higher inflation, slowing pay growth, shop closures and job cuts.” Mr Goodacre argues: “We don’t feel that letter goes nearly far enough,” saying BIRA members are “reeling from the coming increase in business rates,” which are set to double as a tax reduction introduced during the pandemic drops to 40% from 75%. While ministers have made a commitment to reducing business rates in 2026, Mr Goodcare says retailers “cannot understand why business rates have been increased, only to be reduced again.” He has urged the Chancellor to reverse the hike, saying high street shops “can take no more.”

Insolvencies in the hospitality sector have increased by 5% year-on-year, according to analysis by RSM UK, with 3,679 bankruptcies reported in the year to September 2024, up from 3,490 the previous year. Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, warned that the industry is facing “the calm before the storm” as upcoming Budget measures, including a reduction in business rates relief and increases in the national minimum wage, are set to exacerbate financial pressures.

Taxes hikes introduced in the Budget could drive inflation up to 3% in 2025, RSM economist Thomas Pugh has warned. Anna Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, has suggested that the Budget has “shattered business confidence” and could lead to further inflationary pressures. Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, says that the rises in employer National Insurance contributions will “almost certainly” push inflation higher, while Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said: “If the Government wants to prevent a return to high inflation, it needs to consider mitigating the impact of these costs on retailers.”

The Resolution Foundation has warned that almost 1m UK workers have been “lost” due to inaccurate and unreliable official data. The think-tank has accused the Office for National Statistics (ONS) of misrepresenting trends in the job sector, saying it has underestimated employment growth by 930,000 workers since 2019, producing an “overly pessimistic picture” of the UK labour market. The ONS has itself expressed concerns about the accuracy of data from its Labour Force Survey due to poor response rates since the pandemic. The Resolution Foundation has developed its own estimate of UK employment, using HMRC payroll and self-employment data, and says the employment rate could be around 76%, rather than the official rate of around 75% reported by the ONS.

Steve Hare, chief executive of software firm Sage, believes that more businesses will replace workers with AI as tax hikes will increase efforts to cut costs. He said that while a “trend towards a more digital economy was already there,” measures set out in the Budget are likely to accelerates it. Mr Hare said Sage does not want to replace staff with AI, insisting that it will utilise the technology to “elevate the work of humans.”

HMRC paid out almost £1m to those making tip-offs over tax fraud in 2023/24, with this the highest rate in seven years and 92% up on the £508,500 paid out the year before. Analysis by Price Bailey shows that HMRC received 151,763 anonymous tip-offs in 2023/24, with this down on the 157,270 reports received in 2022/23. Price Bailey partner Andrew Park said that “while HMRC has paid out a record amount to tax whistleblowers, it is still a paltry sum when set against the billions lost to tax fraud every year.” The payouts came as part of the tax office’s effort to reduce its £39.8bn tax gap. It is noted that the IRS in the US makes larger payments to whistleblowers, with the tax agency handing over a combined $89m to 121 whistleblowers, with this leading to the recovery of $338m in tax.

Amid an ongoing debate about the Government’s inheritance tax changes, which have drawn criticism from concerned farmers, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has refused to rule out further tax increases, insisting that “the vast majority of estate owners will be totally unaffected.” She said: “I absolutely stand by the figures the Government have set out,” and added that she was “sorry” to hear that farmers were “distressed by what I would say is scaremongering around what the Labour Party is doing.” Meanwhile, Environment Secretary Steve Reed has rejected claims that the Government underestimated how many will be affected by the change. Despite Treasury data suggesting three-quarters of farmers will pay no inheritance tax, Defra data indicates that 66% of farm businesses exceed the £1m threshold for the new 20% tax.

The Chancellor has been accused of “negligence” for implementing changes to inheritance tax that could severely impact family farms. Campaigners argue that Labour’s introduction of a £1m cap on agricultural property relief was made without a proper impact assessment. A Treasury source says an official assessment will not be published until next year’s Budget – six months before the tax takes effect. Jonathan Roberts, of the Country Land and Business Association, said: “If they haven’t done an impact assessment, that is negligence. If they have, but they are refusing to publish it, that is a lack of transparency.”

Charles Hall, Peel Hunt’s head of research, says that while the Government has demonstrated a “fundamental shift” in its approach to growth, more must be done to drive investment into the UK stock market. Praising Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Mansion House speech, he argued that the “piece that was missing” was direct action designed to increase investment in UK equities. Suggesting that offering tax advantages to invest in cash and overseas assets “make little economic sense,” Mr Hall said that with the “right environment and government initiatives,” the UK can once again become a higher growth and productive economy.

Stephen Haddrill, director general of the Finance and Leasing Association, has criticised the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), telling a House of Lords’ Financial Services Regulation Committee that the regulatory regime “is not conducive to lending in a number of respects, and that is damaging to investment.” With a court recently ruling that it was unlawful for car dealers to get commission from lenders without obtaining the customer’s consent, Mr Haddrill said this highlighted “the inconsistency between the law and regulation.” Anthony Coombs, chair of motor finance company S&U, told the committee: “The FCA is not fit for purpose, at least as far as our sector is concerned. It is oppressive, it is deterring investment in the industry, it is inconsistent, and gradually it is smothering our section of the financial services market.”

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows that inflation has risen back above the Bank of England’s 2% target, climbing to 2.3% in October. This exceeds the 2.2% rate forecast by economists and is up on September’s 1.7%. The increase was driven by a rise in energy bills, with regulator Ofgem having increased its price cap by 9.5%. Joe Nellis, economic adviser at MHA, noted that the increase marks the biggest rise in inflation since October 2022. Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: “We know that families across Britain are still struggling with the cost of living. That is why the Budget last month focused on fixing the foundation of our economy so we can deliver change.” Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride commented that it is “worrying” that inflation “is running ahead of expectations and official forecasts state these figures are not expected to improve.” Suren Thiru, economics director at the ICAEW, said the ONS figures “confirm a disappointing resurgence in inflation as the recent tailwind from lower energy costs turned into a headwind in October.”

Research from Sage reveals that 75% of UK residents believe side hustles are the future of work, with 19% managing multiple ventures alongside their main jobs. The trend is particularly strong among younger generations, with 66% of 16-24-year-olds wanting to pursue their side hustles full-time. The rise of side hustles is reshaping employment dynamics, with 58% of under-34s adjusting their working hours to accommodate their projects.