James Reed, the boss of recruitment firm Reed, says a “cooling” economy and decline in job vacancies suggests a recession may be “around the corner.” Mr Reed told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that vacancies on the firm’s website had fallen 13% between October and November. He also highlighted that vacancies are 26% lower than a year ago in what he described as a “significant decline.” He warned: “That worries me because when I’ve seen that in the past, it’s been an indication that recession is around the corner.” Mr Reed, who warned that elements of October’s Budget had “spooked” businesses, has urged ministers to rethink the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.

Analysis from pension-finding firm Raindrop shows that more than four in five workers do not know where all of their pension pots are. Vivan Shridharani, co-founder of Raindrop, warns lost pension pots are putting savers’ retirements at risk, adding: “Locating all previous pension pots should be the first step savers take to boost their retirement incomes and maximise the value of the pots they’ve already built up.” Data from the Pension Policy Institute shows that an estimated £31.1bn is sitting in missing pension pots.

Over 160,000 family businesses and farms have urged the Chancellor to reconsider proposed changes to inheritance tax, warning that it could lead to significant job losses. October’s Budget saw Rachel Reeves announce that from April 2026, inherited business properties valued over £1m will be taxed at 20%, a shift from previous exemptions. An open letter from 32 trade associations says that these changes could “starve” the economy and economic modelling by CBI Economics suggests that the tax alterations could result in a net loss of £1.25bn for the Exchequer and potentially 125,000 job losses. The report details that the changes could reduce economic activity by £9.4bn over the course of the Parliament. Neil Davy, head of Family Business UK, described the changes as a “hammer blow,” warning: “In many cases, those inheriting the business will have no alternative but to sell up when the owner dies.” “In these circumstances, there is a real risk that businesses, assets and farms will be sold to foreign-owned competitors or investors who will pay little to no tax in this country,” he added. Mr Davy went on to note that family business owners are already “taking decisions to withhold planned investments and are putting recruitment on hold.”

HMRC has significantly increased its estimate of taxpayers facing a 60% tax rate, projecting over 2m individuals will be pulled into this bracket within four years. This rise is attributed to frozen income tax thresholds, which means as wages increase, more earners will fall into higher tax brackets due to fiscal drag. By April next year, 1.66m higher earners are expected to have been pulled into the 60% band, with 657,000 losing some personal allowance and 1m losing it all. By the end of the 2027/28 tax year, 747,000 people are expected to have lost some personal allowance while 1.23m will have lost it all. Sean McCann from NFU Mutual said the figures “show the increasing impact of fiscal drag.” The freeze on tax thresholds since 2021 is projected to generate £1.2bn for the Treasury by 2028. Experts have suggested strategies to mitigate the impact, such as increasing pension contributions or charitable donations, to avoid crossing the £100,000 threshold.

Confidence among manufacturers has seen a sharp decline, with the steepest drop in optimism since the pandemic coming as firms prepare for a looming “cost crisis.” A survey by BDO and Make UK shows that 70% of businesses experienced cost increases of up to 20% over the past year, with 8% facing rises of up to 50%. The report warns that the mood among manufacturers has “darkened markedly” since October. Fhaheen Khan, senior economist at Make UK, said the “substantial” increase in National Insurance contributions is “potentially the straw that might break the camel’s back for some.” BDO and Make UK’s growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised downwards, with expectations of a contraction of 0.2% this year and growth of 0.7% in 2025. A previous forecast suggested that the manufacturing industry would grow by 0.5% this year and another 0.8% next year.

Research commissioned by the Society of Trust and Estate Practitioners, the trade body for inheritance advisers, shows that more than two thirds of family business owners do not have a succession plan and only 32% have an up-to-date will. The trade body warns that this puts family businesses at risk of fire sales, higher taxes and costs, and disputes.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows that the economy shrank by 0.1% in October, with this marking the second consecutive decline after a fall in September. The was driven by a fall in production output and uncertainty ahead of the Budget. RSM economist Thomas Pugh warned: “There is a risk that the UK is slipping back into stagflation territory,” but added: “However, it’s likely that at least some of the weakness in October was driven by a pre-Budget ‘wait and see’ attitude by consumers and businesses and we still expect the economy to reaccelerate into 2025.” KPMG’s chief economist, Yael Selfin, said: “The fourth quarter could see a weaker pace of growth, as businesses come to terms with the higher tax burden announced at the Budget as well as rising geopolitical uncertainties,” adding: “Nevertheless, we expect higher public spending to lift GDP growth next year, with lower interest rates providing some boost to private sector demand.” Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC UK, commented: “The outlook for the UK economy next year, relative to the G7, remains brighter.” Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the ONS data was “disappointing,” but added that the Government has “put in place policies to deliver long-term economic growth.”

The UK has become the first European nation to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade bloc, with Britain’s participation coming into force yesterday. Nicola Watkinson, international managing director at TheCityUK, said the move marks a “significant milestone for the UK,” while HSBC UK chief executive Ian Stuart said the announcement “signals that the UK is open for business with some of the world’s most exciting growth markets.” Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said joining the CPTPP “is further proof that the UK is a wonderful place to do business,” adding: “Agreements like this boost trade and create opportunities for UK companies abroad.”

Xavier Rolet, the former head of the London Stock Exchange Group, has warned that the flagship bourse has become “deeply uncompetitive” and there is a risk of more firms seeking better returns overseas. This comes as analysis shows that 88 companies have either delisted or transferred their primary listing away from London’s main market this year, while just 18 firms have joined. This marks the biggest net outflow of firms from the market since the financial crisis in 2009. More than £100bn worth of listed companies have prepared to leave London’s stock market this year, either by agreeing to takeover deals or to delist. Mr Rolet notes that “prominent European blue-chip CEOs” have “raised the possibility of moving to the US to take advantage of lower costs of capital and energy, higher multiples and preferential tariffs.”

UKAI, a trade association for the artificial intelligence sector, has urged the Government to establish a dedicated regulator for AI. The association argues that as AI becomes a significant part of the economy, it requires oversight akin to that of the Financial Conduct Authority in financial services. In a recent report, UKAI said: “An AI Regulator would have a clear focus to interpret existing regulation…avoiding duplication and inefficiency.” It added: “Without an AI-specific regulator we risk a lack of clarity and the likelihood that regulation will be disjointed. Existing regulators have finite resources and lack the extra capacity that will be required to plan for and oversee new AI regulation.” Among those raising concerns are Sarah Cardell, chief executive of the Competition and Markets Authority, who earlier this year flagged “real concerns” about the partnerships between the likes of Google, Amazon and Microsoft with smaller companies specialising in AI technologies. The Government has said it plans to consult on AI regulation, with legislation expected next year to address the risks associated with generative AI models.