OUTLOOK
Half of profit warnings linked to tariffs and trade disruption

The Times Daily Mail The I

Analysis by EY shows that half of the profit warnings issued by UK-listed firms in April cited the impact of US tariffs and global trade disruption. April saw 26 profit warnings, representing a 24% on the 21 recorded in April 2024. Of the profit warnings issued last month, 13 cited tariffs. The data also shows that 62 profit warnings were issued in Q1. While this was down 11% year-on-year, it came before President Donald Trump announced new US tariffs. Jo Robinson, restructuring strategy leader at EY, said: “The first quarter of 2025 may now feel like a different era for many businesses, but the latest profit warnings data reveals underlying weaknesses that will be magnified by recent tariff disruptions and the resulting economic fallout.”

North sees start-up surge

The Standard Daily Mirror

Research by GoDaddy reveals that 40% of the fastest-growing areas for start-ups and small businesses are located in the North of England. The Venture Forward report indicates that 20 of the 50 constituencies with the highest increase in small businesses are in Northern Powerhouse areas, compared to just nine in the south. Towns like Barrow-in-Furness and Burnley have experienced over 70% growth in small businesses compared to last year, highlighting the North’s entrepreneurial spirit and potential for job creation. Andrew Gradon, head of GoDaddy UK and Ireland, noted that the Northern Powerhouse initiative has significantly contributed to this growth, saying: “A decade on from the introduction of the Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund, the investment is clearly having an impact on the start-up economy.” “The North has proven to be a hub of entrepreneurial spirit,” he added.

Construction insolvencies hit record high

City AM

Construction business insolvencies have risen to their highest-ever level, with analysis of corporate filings showing that around 840 construction firms appointed liquidators or administrators in the first four months of 2025. This marks a increase of more than 5% in the same period last year. Insolvency Service data shows that the sector accounted for 19.5% of all UK company failure in February, making it the hardest hit industry. The sector has been hit by a number of challenges, including the rising costs of staff and materials and a shortage of skilled workers.

Consumer confidence slumps

The Guardian

Consumer confidence in the UK has fallen to its lowest level since December 2022, according to a survey by Which?, The poll saw nearly two-thirds of respondents say they expect the economy to worsen in the next year. The consumer confidence tracker fell by seven points to -53, reflecting concerns over global events, including the war in Ukraine and US tariffs. Additionally, confidence in future household finances dropped to -19, the lowest since July 2023.

FINANCING
Ministers to meet bank chiefs over SME funding

The Guardian

Ministers are set to meet with bank executives from HSBC, NatWest, and Lloyds to discuss how major lenders can support the Government’s growth strategy amid rising concerns that small businesses are struggling to secure necessary funding. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is said to be concerned that lending restrictions by high street banks could hinder the expansion of SMEs. A report from the Department for Business and Trade shows that loan approval rates for firms applying for bank finance are currently below 50%, with this a significant drop from the 67% recorded in 2018.

TAX
Non-dom change could hit Treasury tax take

City AM

The Government’s decision to remove tax exemptions for non-doms will not boost public finances, according to Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) analysis. While the Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that removing tax exemptions from non-doms would yield extra tax receipts of £10.3bn this year, the CEBR calculates that even if no non-doms left the UK as a result of the changes, the Treasury would only see gains of £2.5bn in the first year. If non-doms do opt to leave, the public purse could be hit, according to the report, which says that if half of all non-doms leave by 2030, the Government’s revenues would fall by £12.2bn. CEBR economist Sam Miley said: “For every non-dom deciding to relocate, the Treasury will not only lose the tax revenue from their income and gains, but also from their day-to-day activities.”

EMPLOYMENT
EU set to make it easier for UK professionals to work in the bloc

The European Commission is set to propose legislation that will make it easier for UK professionals to work in the EU, with plans to recognise “qualifications and skills of third country nationals.”

CORPORATE
Big banks see trading income spike

City AM

FTSE 100 banks saw trading income jump in Q1, although concern over the impact of US trade policy has increased uncertainty around future earnings. HSBC posted pre-tax profit of £7.1bn, while Barclays and NatWest recorded profits of £2.7bn and £1.8bn, respectively. Lloyds, meanwhile, saw a 7% year-on-decline leave profit of £1.5bn. Dan Cooper, UK banking and capital markets leader at EY, said: “UK banks have reported better than expected first-quarter results with no material signs of asset quality deterioration, demonstrating resilience in the face of rising economic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions.” In the US, Wall Street banks reported record equity revenues in the first quarter.

AND FINALLY …
Gym gains slow

The Times

New gym openings in the UK experienced a significant slowdown last year, rising only 1.8% to 5,030, according to figures from UHY Hacker Young. This decline follows a post-pandemic boom where gym numbers surged from 4,000 to 4,400 in 2021. The slowdown is attributed to tighter consumer spending and increased borrowing costs, with leisure spending rising by just 1.4%. Priti Mistry, an audit director at UHY, said there is “a sense that many high streets have reached a saturation point in terms of the number of gyms they can sustain.”


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