OUTLOOK
M&A value surges 28% this year

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) reached $2.6trn in value for the first seven months of 2025, a 28% increase from last year, according to Dealogic. Despite a 16% drop in the number of transactions, significant US megadeals, such as Union Pacific Corp’s $85bn acquisition of Norfolk Southern, have driven this growth. Andre Veissid, EY Global Financial Services Strategy and Transactions Leader, stated: “What you’re seeing in terms of deal rationale for transactions right now is that it’s heavily growth-motivated.” The US remains the largest market, accounting for over half of global M&A activity.

Big Five banks thrive amid volatility

City AM

The Big Five UK banks – Barclays, HSBC, NatWest, Lloyds, and Standard Chartered – reported a combined profit of £12.8bn for Q2 2024. Despite HSBC’s £1.58bn write-down, the banks benefited from stable interest income and increased trading revenue. Net interest income rose by 3%, reaching £17.3bn, aided by structural hedges and mortgage growth. Analysts expect significant buybacks and dividends, with a projected return of 11% of market valuations by 2025. However, challenges loom, including potential regulatory costs of up to £18bn and concerns over a sector tax hike.

Borrowing costs threaten building boom

The Telegraph’s Szu Ping Chan says rising UK borrowing costs are threatening Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ infrastructure investment plans. Nuwan Goonetilleke from Phoenix notes that investments that were viable a decade ago no longer make sense today. The Bank of England’s quantitative tightening is also pushing up borrowing costs, impacting housing associations’ ability to provide affordable homes. Rob Groves from the Pension Insurance Corporation warns that the current environment is causing a chilling effect on the housing market, delaying numerous building projects.

TAX
Tories urge Chancellor to rule out tax hikes

London Evening Standard The Independent UK

The Conservatives are pressing Chancellor Rachel Reeves to reject proposed tax increases in the autumn budget. They argue that changes, such as scrapping the £500 dividend allowance, could push 5.22m more individuals into paying investment taxes. This follows a leaked memo from Angela Rayner suggesting tax hikes to raise £325m annually. Shadow chancellor Mel Stride stated: “The Government need to urgently rule out these tax hikes on savers and investors before speculation causes further economic harm.” The Chancellor has not ruled out specific tax increases, citing a multibillion-pound budget shortfall.

ECONOMY
BoE expected to continue cutting rates

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% at Thursday’s meeting, but future cuts remain uncertain. James Smith, UK economist at ING, noted the conflicting economic signals, including rising inflation at 3.6% and an increase in unemployment to 4.7%. He stated: “There’s no smoking gun that might prompt a fundamental rethink in the Bank’s outlook just yet.” But Peder Beck-Friis, an economist at Pimco, says: “While inflation has been surprisingly firm, we see good reasons to expect a slowdown. Regulatory price hikes, including in employment taxes, have pushed prices up, but wage growth is softening and the labour market is weakening.” He adds: “We expect the Bank to accelerate rate cuts later this year, with the policy rate settling near 2.75% next year.”

EMPLOYMENT
Rayner pushes for minimum wage hike

The Daily Telegraph

Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, is advocating for an increase in the minimum wage for 18-year-olds, aiming to eliminate the £2 disparity with older workers. Currently, those aged 21 and over earn at least £12.21 per hour, while 18 to 20-year-olds earn £10. Rayner has tasked the Low Pay Commission with developing a plan to remove these age bands. However, business leaders, including Kate Nicholls of UKHospitality, warn that this could lead to job losses, stating: “Now is not the time to make big jumps again in employment costs, when we have already seen 84,000 jobs lost in the hospitality sector over the last six months.”

REGULATION
FLA hits back at FCA’s redress scheme

The Daily Telegraph BBC News City AM

The Finance and Leasing Association (FLA) has criticised the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) proposed redress scheme for car finance mis-selling, calling it “completely impractical.” Stephen Hadrill, FLA’s representative, expressed concern about the scheme covering loans dating back to 2007, stating that both firms and customers may lack necessary documentation. The FCA estimates the scheme could cost the industry between £9bn and £18bn, with individual compensation likely under £950. Hadrill warned that the scheme’s costs could lead to fewer car financing options for consumers, saying: “The more expensive lending becomes, the more expensive borrowing becomes.”

FRAUD
AI fuels identity fraud surge

Daily Mail The Independent UK

Cifas has reported a significant rise in identity fraud, with over 118,000 suspected cases recorded from January to June 2025. The Fraudscape report highlights the role of AI in creating synthetic identities that evade security checks. Many individuals are selling their identities for financial gain, risking debts incurred by criminals using their credentials. Cifas CEO Mike Haley stated: “Fraud is a national emergency – and AI has supercharged the threat.” The report also noted an increase in employee fraud against employers, including concealed backgrounds and multiple undisclosed jobs.

AND FINALLY …
Osborne is right: Britain risks falling behind in crypto

Financial Times Financial Times The Guardian The Independent UK The Times

Former chancellor George Osborne has criticised the UK’s slow approach to cryptocurrency regulation, stating that the country risks falling behind in the financial revolution. In the Financial Times on Monday, Osborne argued that UK regulators have imposed restrictions that hinder market development, particularly regarding stablecoins. Without proactive measures, London may lose its status as a financial centre, he warned. The Independent’s James Moore agrees, adding that UK officials should not fear crypto. Although Osborne’s views are obviously informed by his position on the global advisory council for Coinbase, that doesn’t make him wrong, he says. The Chancellor needs to “get to work” concludes Moore: “There is – if she can but see it – a potential win for her here. It’s risky, to be sure. But so is getting out of bed in the morning.” The Guardian notes that another advocate from the era of the Conservative-led coalition government is another former chancellor, Philip Hammond, who is chair of the crypto firm Copper. Finally, Mehreen Khan explains in the Times that central banks view stablecoins as an “existential threat”  to their control over money.


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