OUTLOOK
Trump hits UK business with stealth tariffs

The US Government has stunned British manufacturers by imposing stealth tariffs of up to 25% on more than 400 new product categories entering the US. The move was slipped out by the Department of Commerce after lobbying from American steel producers. In May, the UK and US agreed a trade deal which included cutting a 25% tariff rate on British steel and aluminium exports to zero. When the US raised other countries’ tariffs to 50% in June, UK exports remained at 25%. Craig Beaumont, executive director at the Federation of Small Businesses, said the “expansive product restrictions were due to be permanently resolved in post-deal negotiations by now.” He added that UK and US negotiators “must buckle down quickly and do that.” Peter Brennan, director of trade and economics policy at UK Steel, said: “This is dragging on, and we need some resolution, because it is causing increasing damage.”

Bailey: Growth and workforce issues present an ‘acute challenge’

Reuters The Guardian

The governor of the Bank of England has warned that Britain faces an “acute challenge” from weak economic growth and a decline in the number of people in employment since the pandemic. Speaking at a US Federal Reserve conference, Andrew Bailey said the Bank has turned its focus away from long-term trends in unemployment and is instead looking at levels of labour force participation. Data shows that 21% of Britons aged 16-64 were neither in work nor actively seeking a job in Q2, with this down on a peak of 22.2% recorded in 2024 but above the 20.3% seen pre-pandemic. Analysis shows that mental health issues are the most common reason for being inactive, something Mr Bailey described as a “very concerning development.”

TAX
Poll shows public support for tax on wealth

Sunday Mirror

A new survey indicates strong public support for a wealth tax on the richest individuals, with 57% of respondents in favour and just 19% opposing the idea. The poll, commissioned by the think-tank Compass, found that 27% “strongly agree” with the idea of the Government introducing taxes on the wealth of the richest people in society, while and 30% “somewhat agree.” Just 9% said they “strongly disagree” with such a policy, and 10% said “somewhat disagree.” Luke Hurst, political affairs and organising officer at Compass, said the poll “lays bare that there is broad public support for tackling wealth inequality and pursuing a tax-reforming economic strategy with equality and fairness at its heart.” He added: “Grotesque concentrations of wealth continue to grow in the hands of a select few.”

UK tops EU property tax rankings

Daily Express

The UK has emerged as the country with the highest property tax in Europe, collecting £114bn in 2023. This figure significantly surpasses the EU average of £11.8bn. The Government has increased taxes on second homes and buy-to-let properties, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves considering changes to stamp duty for homes over £500,000. The UK’s property tax accounts for 3.7% of GDP, exceeding the European average of 1.9%. According to the OECD, the UK leads in multiple property tax categories, highlighting its substantial revenue generation from this sector.

Tax shift puts family firms at risk

Charles Moore in the Telegraph says the abolition of Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief will impose significant inheritance tax burdens on farmers and family businesses. He says the changes could force many to sell their businesses or pay taxes from already low incomes, adding that this may discourage future generations from continuing family businesses.

IHT raid to hit homeowners

New analysis reveals that changes to inheritance tax will cost the average homeowner in England £82,000 within the next two years. A working-age single homeowner with an average-priced home (£290,395) and a “moderate” pension pot of £415,000 would face an inheritance tax bill of £82,158 from 2027. This increase follows the Chancellor’s announcement that pension pots will be subject to death duties from April 2027. The share of estates paying inheritance tax is expected to rise from 4% to 9.7%. The reforms will also impact unmarried couples, who lack spousal exemptions.

Money saving unit to cost taxpayers £1.6m

The Government’s Office for Value for Money – a quango tasked with saving money – is forecast to have cost taxpayers £1.6m before it is closed down in October. The Treasury says the body, which was set up to assess government spending and identify inefficiencies, has been responsible for £14bn of efficiencies. The unit was criticised in January when a Treasury Select Committee report said that it risked wasting taxpayer funds, describing it as an understaffed and “poorly defined organisation.”

EMPLOYMENT
Hospitality sector sees ‘staggering’ job losses

Daily Mail The Times

Of all the job losses recorded since last October’s Budget, the hospitality sector has accounted for more than half (53%), according to analysis by trade body UKHospitality. The report highlights that bars, restaurants, hotels, and pubs have been severely affected by a £25bn increase in National Insurance contributions and a rise in the minimum wage. Data shows that close to 89,000 roles have been shed in the industry over the last nine months. UKHospitality chair Kate Nicholls described the rate of job losses as “staggering,” adding that sector “has been by far the hardest-hit by the Government’s regressive tax increases.” The organisation is calling for urgent measures in the upcoming Budget, saying cuts to business rates and VAT could help prevent hospitality businesses “being taxed out of existence and to reverse the damage.”

Older women in the workforce hit record high

The Mail on Sunday

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the number of women aged 65 and over in employment has reached a record high, having gone beyond the 700,000 milestone. The change has been partly driven by the increase in state pension age and after women’s retirement age was raised from 60 to bring it into line with that of men. Official figures show that in the three months to June, a record 10.3% of women aged 65 or over were in employment, with 710,000 in the workforce.

Young workers warn of WFH isolation

The Times

A survey of 8,000 UK workers shows that four in ten 16-to-24 year olds have become unhappy while working from home, saying they feel lonely or socially isolated. The poll by health insurance firm Bupa shows that 45% of young adults are considering moving to roles that provided more social interaction, compared to 27% of workers across all age groups. Ben Harrison, director of the Work Foundation, said: “Young people’s experience of work has shifted significantly in recent years,” adding that “the rapid introduction of new technologies and a rise in hybrid and remote working practices can risk many young people feeling disconnected from their colleagues and employer.”

REGULATION
Director ID checks may cost firms ‘tens of millions’

The Mail on Sunday

Business leaders could end up spending vast sums to comply with laws designed to prevent fraud, with third-party firms charging up to £250 to help directors navigate Companies House’s new ID verification process. As of November, company directors must verify their identities before their firm’s annual confirmation statement, with those failing to do so potentially facing fines, disqualification or being struck off the register. Cindy van Niekerk, head of ID service Umazi, said: “We are seeing third-party providers charging anywhere from £45 to £250 per verification. Multiply that across six to seven million directors and the bill could run into the tens of millions.”

ECONOMY
Data concerns risk Budget missteps

The Guardian

Concerns over the quality of Office for National Statistics (ONS) data could impact the Treasury’s ability to assess the economy ahead of the Budget. Insiders at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warn that these problems may lead to “significant uncertainty” in forecasts, risking missteps in tax and spending decisions by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The ONS has delayed key data releases, including retail sales figures, due to quality concerns, while questions have been raised over its official measure of employment in the UK amid a collapse in response rates. Economist Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics warns that inadequate data could lead to unnecessary policy changes, saying: “If the OBR is unable to get an accurate read on supply, that could lead to fiscal policy missteps.”

REPORTING
Auditors eye £1bn of FTSE 100 contracts

The Times

The Times reports that more than a billion pounds’ worth of audit fees are up for grabs over the coming months, with at least ten FTSE 100 companies due to begin audit tender processes this year. The most lucrative will be energy giant BP, which currently employs Deloitte on a £66m a year contract. Energy network operator National Grid, which pays Deloitte £21.1m a year, is set to put the contract out to tender, as is pharmaceutical firm GSK, with its £2m per year deal with Deloitte running until the end of 2027. Analysis shows that the combined annual audit bills of the ten FTSE 100 companies that are considering appointing new auditors add up to about £140m.

AND FINALLY …
Poll: 43% want a change in Chancellor

The Mail on Sunday

A survey shows that 43% of UK voters think Sir Keir Starmer should sack Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, with just 19% thinking she should remain in the post to deliver the upcoming Budget. Among Labour voters, more than one in five think the Prime Minister should remove Ms Reeves from the Treasury. The poll also saw 39% of respondents say that Labour is doing worse than the last Conservative government, while 23% think it is doing better. The survey also shows uncertainty over Mr Starmer’s position, with 35% saying they expect him to still be Prime Minister in a year and 34% saying that someone else will be leading the Government.


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