OUTLOOK
Manufacturing output hits three-month low

City AM

Manufacturing output in the UK fell to a three-month low in August, according to the latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from S&P Global. The index recorded a reading of 47, indicating a downturn as firms faced rising payroll and raw material costs. Matt Swannell from EY ITEM Club noted: “August’s final S&P Global manufacturing survey provided further signs that the sector appears likely to continue to underwhelm.” Job losses continued for the tenth month, with manufacturers expressing concerns over taxes and energy costs affecting competitiveness.

House prices dip as tax fears loom

Daily Mail The Daily Telegraph The I

House prices in the UK fell by 0.1% in August, equating to a decrease of £1,585, according to Nationwide Building Society. The average property value now stands at £271,079, which is 2.1% higher than last year but below the peak of £273,751 in August 2022. Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, noted that prices remain unaffordable compared to incomes, with the average house price being 5.8 times the average salary. He stated: “House prices are still high compared to household incomes, making raising a deposit challenging for prospective buyers.” Speculation around tax changes may further impact the market.

ECONOMY
UK borrowing costs keep rising

UK borrowing costs have surged, with 30-year gilt yields hitting 5.64%, their highest in 27 years, following Sir Keir Starmer’s reshuffle of his economic team. Investors reacted warily to the appointment of Baroness Shafik, who has supported higher wealth taxes, and Darren Jones’s move to chief secretary. Analysts say markets doubt the new team can stabilise public finances, particularly with a £50bn budget gap looming. Global pressures, including President Trump’s US tax policies and French political turmoil, are also driving yields higher. Economists warned that the UK’s weak fiscal outlook makes it especially vulnerable without a credible deficit-reduction plan.

TAX
Voters reject tax hikes and want Reeves gone

Financial Times The Daily Telegraph City AM The Guardian The Times

Most UK voters oppose higher taxes, according to a YouGov poll. The survey found that 58% believe tax increases are unjustified, despite economists suggesting Chancellor Rachel Reeves may need to raise £50bn in the Autumn Budget. Among Labour voters, 42% support tax hikes, while 39% oppose them. Trust in Sir Keir Starmer’s Government is low, with 43% of voters calling for a Cabinet reshuffle and 55% wanting the Chancellor dismissed. The poll comes as Starmer reshuffles his team, appointing Minouche Shafik as economics adviser and poaching two senior Treasury officials – Darren Jones, who was Ms Reeves’s number two and Dan York-Smith. One Labour MP said the appointments reflected Ms Reeves’s diminishing authority in the Government, telling the Telegraph: “It’s a signal that she is in a weak position and it’s deteriorating.”

Chancellor urged to reform windfall tax

The Daily Telegraph The Scotsman

Offshore Energy UK (OEUK) has urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to reform the windfall tax on energy profits, warning that the North Sea oil and gas sector could vanish “within years, not decades.” OEUK’s chief executive, David Whitehouse, stated that failing to adjust the energy profits levy could lead to a £137bn loss by 2050 and jeopardise 23,000 jobs. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, plans to eliminate net zero requirements for the sector, advocating for maximum extraction. She stated: “It is time that common sense, economic growth and our national interest came first.”

Sin tax hike faces OBR scrutiny

City AM

Labour officials are being warned that proposed increases in “sin taxes” may face tougher scrutiny from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this year after the body admitted overestimating receipts for excise and fuel duties in the past. Reports indicate higher gambling levies could raise £3bn, alongside additional duties on unhealthy products. However, the OBR’s past inaccuracies in forecasting raise concerns about revenue projections. Adam Hoffer from the Tax Foundation noted that behavioural changes often lead to overestimations of tax revenue, while industry leaders urge the Treasury to consider “on-the-ground concerns” before finalising decisions.

Labour’s tax raid threatens farmers

Richard Pennycook, chairman of 2Sisters, warns that Labour’s inheritance tax changes threaten the viability of family farms in the UK. From April 2026, family farms valued over £1m will incur a 20% inheritance tax, a shift that could push many farmers to abandon agriculture. Pennycook said: “There will inevitably be anxious conversations taking place around the kitchen table at a family level at thousands of farms.” He highlighted the risk of increased reliance on imported food and called for prioritising food security over tax changes.

FRAUD
New fraud law a ‘fundamental shift’ in corporate accountability

City AM The Guardian

A new “failure to prevent fraud” law came into effect on Monday in what Irwin Mitchell described as a “fundamental shift” in corporate accountability. The law, which means companies could be prosecuted and face unlimited fines if they fail to prevent fraud that their firm profits from, will apply to large organisations that meet at least two of three criteria: having more than 250 employees, £36m turnover or £18m in total assets. Companies must now prove it took reasonable steps to prevent the fraud at the time of wrongdoing.

FINANCING
Reform UK slams local pension fees

Reform UK has urged the Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS) to cut excessive fees paid to fund managers. Richard Tice, the party’s deputy leader, stated that local authorities in England and Wales overpay by at least £1bn annually, with poor performance costing £8bn to £10bn over five years. The LGPS manages £392bn for 6.7m public sector workers. Tice claimed that 13 councils managing £66bn have underperformed by 1.9% yearly since 2019, with average fees at 0.5%. Writing in the Telegraph, he said: “A gravy train culture has developed where everyone can overcharge, no one is held to account for underperformance, and the taxpayer is taken for a ride. Reform is calling an end to this financial mismanagement and abuse.”

CORPORATE
FRC approached about private equity deals

Financial News reports on how the Financial Reporting Council is being approached by audit firms and investors about private equity deals as interest in potential takeovers heightens. A Freedom of Information Act request reveals that at least six audit firms have approached the FRC about the possibility of a change in capital structure over the past two years. However, the piece notes that regulators are concerned that such deals could erode audit quality and stability in the sector.


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