Confidence among small business leaders in London has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, with only 36% predicting growth for the last quarter of 2025. The decline is attributed to fears surrounding Rachel Reeves’s upcoming Budget, with 86% of owners concerned it may harm their financial outlook. The Business Barometer study by Novuna Business Finance indicates a nationwide downturn, with growth predictions dropping across all sectors. Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna, stated: “The slide in confidence within the capital is a concern for the country at large.” The survey involved 1,244 small business owners.

Consumer confidence in the UK has significantly declined, with 62% of respondents in KPMG’s latest Consumer Pulse survey reporting a worsening economy, up from 43% at the start of the year. The survey, which included 3,000 UK consumers, indicated that 56% of those perceiving economic decline are reducing spending on everyday items. Rising food inflation and higher energy bills are key factors contributing to this pessimism, according to Linda Ellett, head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG UK.

Economists have been left unsure about the Bank of England’s expectation for inflation for the year ahead after it replaced data indicating 3.5% with a survey suggesting 3.4%, the same as the previous month.

Rachel Reeves’s £25bn payroll tax and minimum wage increases have led to the longest staff reduction streak in four years, according to the latest Bank of England data. Companies plan to cut staff by an average of 0.4% over the next year. This marks the fourth consecutive month of intended layoffs, the longest since 2021. The survey revealed that 42% of firms plan to fire employees, while 38% will raise prices. Unemployment has reached a near four-year high of 4.7%. The Chancellor is expected to announce further tax increases on November 26.

Rachel Reeves could secure up to £25bn in tax measures without violating Labour’s manifesto, according to Morgan Stanley. The investment bank’s chief UK economist, Bruna Skarica, said: “Tax-wise, we can see [about] £25bn of measures that don’t breach the spirit of the Labour manifesto, are not outright inflationary, and can be implemented at a gradual pace.” The report outlines potential tax hikes, including extending the freeze on income tax thresholds, which could generate £7bn to £10bn.

Rachel Reeves is being urged to abolish windfall taxes on North Sea oil and gas producers. According to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), the energy profits levy has diminished investment and business confidence, putting the UK at a “competitive disadvantage.” Bosses recommend a new fiscal regime linked to oil and gas prices. Shevaun Haviland, BCC director general, stated: “If we want the UK to be more productive and to grow our economy, then we must take action to become more competitive internationally.” The report also suggests changes to business rates and airport capacity expansion.

Polling reveals that 71% of the public anticipates tax increases in the upcoming autumn Budget, with only 32% believing these hikes are necessary. Reform UK voters are particularly pessimistic, with 78% expecting tax rises. Richard Tice MP condemned the Government for breaking promises not to raise taxes, stating: “We face a population trapped on stagnant wages.” Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride echoed concerns, attributing the tax rises to Labour’s loss of economic control. John O’Connell, chief executive of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, added that taxpayers are “terrified” of further tax increases.

Economists expect that fresh predictions from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will see the fiscal watchdog revise down its expectations for UK productivity gains, putting even more pressure on the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Matt Swannell, from EY says: “It seems likely that productivity growth could now rise to just under 1% per year, which is broadly comparable to the IMF and Bank of England’s latest forecasts, rather than picking up to around 1.25%. On its own, this could reduce headroom by just under £20bn.”

The recent auction of ten-year bonds worth £4.5bn by the Debt Management Office (DMO) attracted the weakest demand in five months, with bids only 2.78 times the amount offered. Despite this, the bond was oversubscribed, yielding 4.75%. Yields on ten-year gilts have risen from 4.56% at the year’s start to 4.71%. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that yields may “flatline” this year. Nick Hayes from Axa Investment Managers stated that concerns about the gilt market are “overblown,” highlighting UK bonds’ strong performance compared to other markets.

Pubs in the UK will be allowed to remain open until at least 1am during the World Cup next summer. This decision comes as FIFA plans late kick-offs for matches, including some at 11pm and 2am UK time. A government source stated that the World Cup will be deemed an “occasion of exceptional national significance,” allowing extended hours without special permission.