Thousands of small businesses could be at risk of closure due to declining revenues and rising tax bills, with a Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) survey of nearly 1,500 small business owners and sole traders showing that 30% expect to either contract, downsize or collapse over the coming year. The poll saw 55% of companies say that their income fell over the past three months, with a £25bn tax raid having an impact. This came after changes in last year’s Budget saw the main rate of employer National Insurance contributions climb from 13.8% to 15% and the earnings threshold reduced to £5,000 from £9,100. Tina McKenzie, policy chair at the FSB, said: “Millions of small businesses shrinking, closing or selling up instead of growing means a vicious cycle of a lower tax take, higher unemployment, and greater demands on the state all exacerbating each other in a downward spiral.”

A new report from the Young Entrepreneurs Forum – a branch of the Entrepreneurs Network think-tank – warns that the UK risks losing young entrepreneurial talent to countries such as the US, Canada, and Denmark, as Britain becomes less attractive for start-up founders. Although the UK’s start-up ecosystem remains strong, challenges with investment, government initiatives, and immigration policies are pushing young innovators abroad. The report urges the Government to modernise its policies to retain and attract talent by expanding tax relief schemes for start-ups, abolishing stamp duty on shares, easing immigration rules to draw global talent, and working with the Regulatory Innovation Office to remove barriers to innovation. Sean Kohli, chair of the Young Entrepreneurs Forum, said: “Britain has no shortage of talent or ambition, but too much of that potential is still held back,” adding: “Culturally, we’ve made entrepreneurship seem like an impossible dream for too many driven innovators.”

Sir Keir Starmer has refused to rule out breaking a manifesto pledge on taxes ahead of the Budget. During Prime Minister’s Questions, Mr Starmer avoided confirming whether Labour would maintain its promise not to raise National Insurance, income tax, or VAT when pressed by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. With Chancellor Rachel Reeves facing a potential £50bn gap in her spending plans, there has been speculation that the Budget will deliver tax increases. The Office for Budget Responsibility is set to revise down its predictions for productivity of the UK economy, adding further pressure to the public finances. Sir Keir told MPs that the downgrade showed the “true extent of the damage” done to the economy by the Conservatives, adding: “They broke the economy. We are fixing it.” Ms Badenoch rejected this, warning that Labour are set to raise taxes because the Prime Minister “is too weak to control spending.”

Rachel Reeves is reportedly contemplating a 2p increase in income tax, a move that would breach Labour’s manifesto commitment that the party would not raise income tax, National Insurance, or VAT. Sources say that the Chancellor is considering cutting National Insurance by 2p and raising income tax by 2p. The move, which has been proposed by the Resolution Foundation think-tank, would raise £6bn for the Treasury as Ms Reeves looks to plug a gap in the public finances. The plan put forward by the think-tank would see the basic income tax rate rise from 20% to 22%, with the higher rate climbing from 40% to 42% and the additional rate going up from 45% to 47%. At the same time, the National Insurance rate would drop from 8% to 6% for basic rate income tax payers, and from 2% to zero for higher and additional rate payers.

Rathbones has warned that proposed cuts to pension tax relief in the November Budget could cost UK pension funds £50bn over five years, reducing incentives for contributions and harming savers’ retirement plans. Slashing higher-rate tax relief from 40% to 25% would lower pension pots, limit long-term investment in UK businesses, infrastructure, and innovation, and undermine initiatives like the Mansion House Accord and Pension Schemes Bill. Financial planners caution that while the changes might provide short-term Treasury savings, the long-term consequences could severely impact economic growth and retirement outcomes for millions of Britons.

Emma Walmsley, the chief executive of biopharma company GSK, has cautioned Chancellor Rachel Reeves against altering the pharmaceutical tax regime. She said it was “absolutely critical” to incentivise investment, including maintaining tax credits on research and development, adding: “The more important area of focus for us is to make sure that nothing happens that hampers UK competitiveness in terms of changes to tax measures.”

HMV’s chief executive, Phillip Halliday, has urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to provide tax relief in the upcoming Budget. Mr Halliday, who warned that the retail sector is facing a number of struggles, particularly with business rates and potential VAT increases, said: “We definitely already overpay in terms of the tax burden.”

Credit ratings agency Fitch has issued a warning over the $3trn shadow banking industry, citing “bubble-like characteristics” that could lead to a global financial shock. The agency noted that a crisis in private credit could impact banks and fund managers. The market has grown 50% recently, with banks holding $4.5trn in exposure. Fitch said that while the market is not yet a systemic risk, it is evolving into a more complex asset class. The collapses of Tricolor and First Brands have prompted concern that further issues may be lurking within the private-credit market. JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon commented: “My antenna goes up when things like that happen,” adding: “I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing to address a £20bn gap in the UK’s public finances, following a downgrade in productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility. Ms Reeves said she is “determined that we don’t simply accept the forecasts but we defy them.” Economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies have calculated a shortfall of £22bn in the public finances and predict that tax increases may be necessary to balance the books. Ms Reeves said that “austerity, a chaotic Brexit and the pandemic have left deep scars on the British economy that are still being felt today,” but insisted that “the task facing our country – facing me as Chancellor – is not to relitigate the past or let past mistakes determine our future.” The Chancellor has seemingly ruled out increases in borrowing, saying investment “cannot come at the cost of economic responsibility.”

Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that the Bank of England will reduce interest rates for the sixth time in over a year, driven by rising unemployment and lower-than-expected inflation. The analysts expect the Monetary Policy Committee to lower rates by 0.25% to 3.75% at its November meeting. Japanese investment bank Nomura also thinks the committee will lower rates.

An increase in the national minimum wage to at least £12.70 could enable thousands of part-time workers to qualify for workplace pensions. Currently, workers must earn £10,000 or more to be automatically enrolled. Rachel Vahey from AJ Bell noted that a part-time worker’s earnings would rise from £9,841 to £10,236 with this wage increase. Sarah Coles from Hargreaves Lansdown added that this change would significantly benefit younger workers, allowing them to start saving for retirement earlier. The Low Pay Commission reported that 1.9m UK workers were paid at or below minimum wage in 2024.

Experts have voiced concern over a plan that could see partners at limited liability partnerships (LLPs) facing higher taxes, with accountants and lawyers suggesting that firms are likely to restructure, converting to limited companies, traditional partnerships or foreign entities to avoid paying higher rates. Currently, LLP partners are treated as self-employed and pay lower national insurance contributions (NICs). UHY Hacker Young calculates that imposing employer NICs of 15% could add roughly £46,000 in annual tax per partner.

Around 40 security guards at the Bank of England, employed by Amulet, plan a 24-hour strike on Nov 13 over pay disputes, with a picket outside the central bank. Unite warns the action could leave the Bank’s £200bn gold reserves “vulnerable,” as staff oversee perimeter and control room security. The strike follows the Bank’s refusal to grant a pay increase, which the union says amounts to a real-terms pay cut amid high inflation. The Bank insists robust measures are in place to maintain security.