The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the UK was “especially exposed” to higher oil and gas prices due to its reliance on imported gas. The IMF said European countries faced a shock similar to that experienced in 2021–22 which could force governments to consider increased subsidies and welfare payments to the worst-affected households. There would be higher prices and slower growth worldwide should the conflict in the Middle East continue to strangle exports, the IMF added. The warning came as Sir Keir Starmer met with business leaders to thrash out ways to mitigate the crisis.

Business confidence increased by 11 points to 55% in March, primarily due to smaller firms, according to the Lloyds Business Barometer. The survey, conducted from March 2-16, showed that over 90% of responses came in the first week, before the potential impact of Middle Eastern conflict affected smaller businesses. Larger firms exhibited less optimism, reflecting their varied exposure to global conditions. Notably, 66% of businesses expressed a positive outlook for the next 12 months, an increase of four points.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has announced a £9.1bn motor finance redress scheme, a significant reduction from earlier estimates of £11bn. The number of qualifying agreements has decreased from 14.2m to 12.1m, leading to lower overall costs. Nikhil Rathi, FCA chief executive, said: “We’ve listened to feedback to make sure the scheme is fair for consumers and proportionate for firms.” The majority of the redress will be due to poorly disclosed discretionary commission arrangements, which created a conflict of interest by paying dealers more if they put customers on higher rates. Some will also be from high commissions. Despite fewer eligible claims, the average payout is expected to rise to £830.

More than half of retail jobs may be impacted by the upcoming Employment Rights Act, warns the British Retail Consortium (BRC). The changes, effective from April, will enhance worker protections but could particularly affect young and part-time employees. Helen Dickinson, BRC chief executive, said: “Flexible retail jobs are a vital part of how millions of people are able to stay in work…If reforms treat flexibility as a problem rather than something workers actively choose, the risk is fewer opportunities and reduced access to work.” The BRC argues that guaranteed hours should apply only to contracts of eight hours or fewer, to better reflect seasonal patterns. However, unions said these rights were important for vulnerable workers. Paul Nowak, the general secretary of unions group the TUC, said: “Working people need security and predictability to plan their lives, manage their finances and care for their children.”

Russell Findlay, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has pledged to permanently reduce business taxes if elected. He aims to reform the business rates system, eliminating taxes for properties valued under £20,000. Findlay said: “Scottish businesses and workers are being relentlessly hammered by SNP and Labour taxes.” The Scottish Retail Consortium warned that medium and larger shops in Scotland will pay £162m more than their English counterparts over three years. The Conservatives also plan to introduce a Bill allowing businesses to request regulatory changes and establish enterprise zones for investment.

Small businesses in the UK are facing severe financial strain as diesel prices hit their highest level since 2003. The average cost of diesel reached 181.2p per litre, driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has affected imports. Steve Gooding from the RAC Foundation said: “White van man is bleeding cash just to stay on the road.” He warned that rising diesel prices will impact everyone, increasing costs for services like plumbing and home deliveries.

London’s largest developers are urging the Government to classify office space as critical economic infrastructure. The London Property Alliance (LPA) warns that a shortage of office space could hinder economic growth. Since 2018, Central London has lost 14m sq ft of office space, with the West End’s vacancy rate plummeting to 0.8%. Alexander Jan, chief economic adviser at the LPA, said: “Without a sustained pipeline of high quality office space, the capital risks constraining its own success.” The LPA projects a shortfall of nearly 11m sq ft in the next five years.

Rachel Reeves stands to gain from a potential multi-billion pound tax windfall as energy prices rise due to the Middle East conflict. Analysis by the Times indicates the Government could earn £20m daily from oil and gas taxes. If prices remain high for a year, the Treasury may see an additional £8bn from VAT and oil firm profits.

The collapse of World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks could impose new duties on UK exports, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) warns. The failure to renew a 28-year moratorium means countries may charge for digital transactions, affecting services like emailing contracts and streaming. Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle called it a “major setback for global trade.” William Bain, head of trade policy at the BCC, stated that the end of the moratorium creates “fresh uncertainty for thousands of UK exporters.” He noted that around 75% of the UK’s £545bn annual services exports could be impacted.

James Ashton, the chief executive of the Quoted Companies Alliance, discusses the regime covering the audit of public interest entities in the Times, calling it a “blunt instrument from another era” that has “distorted the audit market” by shrinking the pool of accountancy firms for most public companies to appoint from. Ashton notes comments from Financial Reporting Council CEO Richard Moriarty in 2024 when he discussed the difficulty of policing different reporting regimes, saying it was like being “sheriff for only half the county”. Ashton calls for a simplified reporting regime that “enables small to flourish alongside large.”