OUTLOOK
Construction jobs slashed as inflation spikes

The I City AM

Construction firms are cutting jobs rapidly due to soaring inflation, which reached its highest level in over three years. S&P Global reported that the month-to-month inflation increase in March was the largest since data collection began in 1997. Tim Moore, S&P Global’s economics director, said: “The drop in confidence during March wiped out the steady improvements in business optimism.” The construction purchasing managers’ index rose slightly to 45.6, but remained below the 50-mark, indicating ongoing contraction. Analysts warn that inflation may continue to rise, impacting job stability in the sector.

Hospitality jobs at risk as ‘permacrisis’ bites

UK pubs and restaurants face staff cuts and reduced hours due to rising energy prices, minimum wage increases, and business rate hikes, threatening their survival, the FT reports.

TAX
New tax rules hit self-employed Brits

Daily Express

HMRC has implemented new tax regulations affecting self-employed individuals earning over £50,000. The Making Tax Digital (MTD) initiative requires these earners to submit quarterly digital records of income and expenses. This change aims to simplify year-end tax filings by storing information from quarterly updates. The threshold will gradually lower, reaching £20,000 by April 2028. Craig Ogilvie, HMRC’s Director of Making Tax Digital, said: “This will make it easier for sole traders and landlords to stay on top of their tax affairs.” Penalties for late submissions will be introduced, but no points will be issued in the first year.

EMPLOYMENT
New watchdog gains police-like powers

The Times

The Fair Work Agency (FWA) has been granted extensive surveillance powers typically associated with police and intelligence services, the Times reports. This includes access to communications data to investigate serious labour market offences, such as exploitation and modern slavery. Critics have labelled these powers a “snooper’s charter.” The FWA can also enforce workplace access for unions, allowing them to meet staff weekly in firms with over 21 employees. Kate Shoesmith from the British Chambers of Commerce expressed concern that this could disrupt productivity. A government spokesperson defended the powers as necessary for tackling serious labour exploitation.

Minimum wage rise reduces new hiring

The Times

The recent rise in the national living wage to £12.71 an hour has sparked concerns about its impact on employment. Ryan Bourne, an economist at the Cato Institute, highlights evidence from the Low Pay Commission’s latest report, which indicates that high minimum wages can reduce new hiring and limit entry-level job opportunities. Many businesses report scaling back training and investment due to increased wage costs. The report warns that these wage increases may harm productivity and create a “low-hire, low-fire” labour market, disproportionately affecting young job seekers.

ECONOMY
Interest rate hike fears ease

City AM

Traders have adjusted their expectations for interest rate hikes following a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. The two-year gilt yield has fallen to 4.1%, with markets now anticipating only one rate hike from the Bank of England, currently at 3.75%. George Vessey, a macro strategist, noted that the UK economy’s vulnerability to energy price shocks makes interest rate expectations sensitive to geopolitical events. Bank governor Andrew Bailey previously remarked that traders had overestimated the likelihood of multiple hikes. The Monetary Policy Committee will meet on 30 April to assess economic data and inflation expectations.

House prices drop as mortgage rates rise

Financial Times City AM Daily Mail

House prices in the UK fell by £1,374 in March, a 0.5% decrease, as mortgage rates surged due to uncertainty from the Iran conflict. The average home value is now £299,677, dipping below £300,000. Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, attributed the slowdown to rising inflation expectations and higher energy prices. Jonathan Hopper, chief executive of Garrington Property Finders, noted that the increase in fixed-rate mortgages has cooled buyer demand. Bryden stated: “The effect on house prices will largely depend on how long-lasting these pressures prove to be.” Meanwhile, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported a significant drop in buyer enquiries, falling from negative 29% in February to negative 39% in March.

INVESTMENT
Review calls for softer investment warnings

The Times

The Investment Association has called for a review of investment risk warnings mandated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The association argues that current warnings, such as “capital at risk,” create unnecessary fear among potential investors, equating investment with gambling. A survey revealed that 38% of consumers believed they could lose everything due to these warnings. Chris Cummings, chief executive of the Investment Association, said: “Well intentioned rules… have resulted in warnings that overwhelm rather than inform.” The association suggests a more balanced approach to encourage long-term investment.

FINANCE
UK banking licence applications hit zero

City AM

The number of applicants for UK banking licences fell to zero in 2025, raising concerns about the Government’s ability to attract competition and foreign investment. According to Pathlight Associates, the decline from 11 applications in 2020 reflects perceptions of regulatory complexity. John Higgins, CEO of Pathlight, said: “The UK regulators could play a greater role in addressing these misconceptions.” Despite recent successes like Revolut’s licence approval, the overall trend indicates a struggle to draw new entrants into the banking sector, risking economic growth and innovation.

Private equity turns to secondary deals in attempt to boost returns

The secondaries market in private equity is rapidly growing, the FT reports, offering attractive returns but posing risks due to leverage and potential misalignment of investor expectations.


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