Leading analysts warn that rising US borrowing costs could plunge the UK into a severe recession. The US recently faced its highest long-term bond interest rates in 25 years, raising concerns about its growing deficit and persistent inflation. Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish, said the repercussions for the UK would be dire, with increased mortgage and corporate debt costs. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that a US tech crash could trigger a financial crisis in Europe. Analysts at the ECB point out that €440bn of European household investments are tied to US tech stocks, a significant decline in which could lead to forced asset sales in the eurozone.

Household confidence in the UK has reached its lowest point since the cost-of-living crisis began in 2023, according to S&P Global’s UK consumer sentiment index. The index fell to 42.9 in August, down from 43.4 in July. Job insecurity is at its highest in nearly three and a half years, with incomes declining for the first time since April 2023. Maryam Baluch, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Debt and the depletion of savings also weighed increasingly on household sentiment in August.” Concerns about potential tax increases further exacerbate the situation.

Analysis of figures from fixed-income data provider Solve has found the value of troubled loans held by some of the biggest private debt investors has reached levels last seen in 2017.

The UK’s jobs market is experiencing stagnation, with private sector employment intentions at a record low of plus 11, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD). “A stagnant labour market closes off routes into work for first-time jobseekers, blocks progression for existing employees, and erodes the talent pipeline organisations rely on to refresh skills and support innovation,” said James Cockett, CIPD’s senior labour market economist. Only 57% of employers plan to hire in the next three months, while 31% report hard-to-fill vacancies. The CIPD calls for reversing national insurance contribution hikes to boost hiring and support young jobseekers.

The Conservative Party plans to repeal EU-era rules that restrict the working hours of 16- and 17-year-olds. The move aims to enhance job opportunities for young people, who have seen a significant decline in part-time work since Labour’s rise to power. Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, acknowledged that the previous Tory government should have repealed “the corpus of regulations which have suffocated firms,” but under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, “the next Conservative government will not make the same mistake.” The proposals include allowing teens to work later hours and reducing mandatory breaks, which business leaders have welcomed as a means to improve youth employment.

Callum Anderson, the Labour MP for Buckingham and Bletchley, has urged Chancellor John Healey to reconsider stamp duty on shares in the UK. In a LinkedIn essay, he argued that the current 0.5% tax discourages investment and makes UK shares less appealing than international companies. Anderson said cutting the duty could stimulate growth,  proposed further investment reliefs and a potential defence gilt to support military spending.

The Cabinet Office will pay KPMG and EY £456m to deliver AI and management training to the Civil Service. The deal is the single biggest contract awarded by officials since 2012, according to government procurement data provider Tussell, and will cover the launch of a new National School of Government to train civil servants. KPMG will earn £319m and EY £137m from the deal, which comes despite a pledge from Sir Keir Starmer in 2024 to halve spending on consultants.

Moneysupermarket has introduced a business bank account aimed at helping small businesses comply with Making Tax Digital requirements. The account has a monthly fee starting at £5 for deposits up to £750, with higher fees for larger deposits. Lis Barton, chief customer officer, stated the account simplifies financial management with features like real-time transaction tracking. The first Making Tax Digital deadline for businesses with incomes over £50,000 was on August 7, and many missed it. Moneysupermarket’s account also allows VAT returns to be submitted directly, aiding compliance.

Ultimate Finance, backed by Joe Lewis’s Tavistock Group, has proposed a £55.13m cash bid for Time Finance. If approved, investors would receive 59.1p per share, a 12.6% premium on the current share price. Time Finance, established in 2000, provides loans to small and medium-sized businesses across the UK. Josh Levy, CEO of Ultimate Finance, said the merger “would create a stronger, more scalable specialist lending platform.” Analyst Gary Greenwood noted the deal could result in a lender with nearly £650m in lending capabilities.

The number of overseas tech workers applying for UK visas has decreased for the third year, dropping 7% to 34,936 in 2025, according to a Freedom of Information request by RSM UK. This follows a peak of 53,729 applications in 2022. Ben Bilsland from RSM UK said: “Talent shortage remains one of the biggest challenges in the tech industry.” Despite recent visa reforms, industry leaders argue that costs and complexity hinder the UK’s competitiveness in attracting global tech talent.

Former pensions minister Sir Steve Webb has warned that pension savers might have to wait until 60 to access their funds. Currently, the normal minimum pension age (NMPA) is 55, increasing to 57 in April 2028. Webb suggests Labour has “no fondness” for the powers that pension savers have over accessing their pots, adding that raising the age would result in “administrative chaos”. A Treasury spokesman confirmed that the NMPA will be 57 by 2028, with no further changes planned. d.