Chancellor John Healey has ruled out increasing capital gains tax in the Budget, preserving the 24% higher rate on profits from asset sales for higher-rate taxpayers. HMRC previously estimated that a ten-percentage-point increase would reduce receipts by £3.6bn in 2028-29, as investors could defer disposals, realise gains earlier or leave the UK. The decision limits an anticipated tax rise affecting shareholders, business owners and property investors. The Budget is instead expected to rely on higher bank taxation as its largest revenue raiser, shifting the fiscal burden towards lenders. Meanwhile, the FT says business leaders have urged Healey to prioritise spending cuts over business tax rises and deliver a “do no harm” Budget next week.

Fintech investors have warned that possible financial-sector tax rises could weaken funding and valuations in an already capital-starved market. A higher banking surcharge could cause banks to reduce partnerships and venture debt, although a general capital gains tax increase has reportedly been ruled out. Fintech owners considering a sale face a shallower investor pool and weaker valuation sentiment, making evidence of recurring revenue, funding resilience and strategic buyer interest especially important.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is not expected to reverse last year’s productivity downgrade soon enough to hand Chancellor John Healey a £25bn fiscal windfall. The Office for National Statistics has almost doubled its estimate of annual productivity growth between 2009 and 2019, from 0.7% to 1.3%, but much of the revision reflects lower estimated working hours. The OBR could still recognise more recent gains, with output per worker annualising at about 1.6% from late 2024 to mid-2026. Better near-term forecasts would ease borrowing and tax pressures, supporting the confidence and financing conditions on which exit valuations depend.

Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, reaching 41.3, according to S&P Global. This marks the third consecutive month of decreasing confidence, driven by fears of inflation and rising interest rates. The survey indicates that 57% of households anticipate higher interest rates in the near future. The negative sentiment reflects a significant drop in expectations for personal finances over the next year.

UK inflation is forecast to have risen from 3.1% to 3.4% in September, as higher petrol and diesel prices drive around half the increase. Petrol averages 174.31p a litre, while diesel is 199.31p, after the US-Iran war and refinery attacks disrupted markets.

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has urged Chancellor John Healey to exempt high earners from new rules that reduce the qualifying period for unfair dismissal from two years to six months. Ryan Wain, senior director at the institute, said the move would make it easier to hire six-figure earners, who would also be more mobile. New rights laws have led to a 55% surge in claims against employers in Q1 this year compared with the same period in 2025, the Telegraph reports, with law firms warning that a flood of claimants could collapse the employment tribunal system altogether.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph, Adam Smith argues that the Government’s youth employment guarantee could cost about £1bn upfront for another 100,000 places annually. The existing six-month scheme costs approximately £10,000 to £12,000 per place before benefit savings, while £2.5bn committed over three years includes only 90,000 places. Smith instead advocates freezing the youth minimum wage and cutting employer National Insurance for workers aged 21 to 24. For labour-intensive companies, any reduction in entry-level employment costs could support margins and valuation, while a subsidy-led scheme would offer less certainty about costs after placements end.

The Daily Mail argues that an expected increase in the 3% banking surcharge could weaken UK bank shares and leave Barclays vulnerable to an overseas takeover. British banks already face higher tax rates than US peers, and reports of the increase have weighed on shares. JPMorgan could view Barclays, including its investment bank and brand, as undervalued.

Kemi Badenoch will co-host a roundtable lunch with Goldman Sachs International’s chief executive, Anthony Gutman, on 5 November. The event follows Labour Chancellor John Healey’s Autumn Budget and aims to engage UK business leaders. Guests will discuss the political and business landscape, with the Tory leader expected to present her vision for the future.