OUTLOOK

Ineos pulls UK investments amid instability

Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos Energy has ceased investments in the UK, labelling it “one of the most unstable fiscal regimes in the world.” Brian Gilvary, executive chairman, stated that £3bn will be redirected to the US after closing the Grangemouth oil refinery, resulting in 430 job losses. Ratcliffe cited high carbon taxes as a barrier to investment, claiming they “merely shift production and emissions elsewhere.” Ineos has already begun investing in US operations, including acquisitions in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, outgoing French prime minister Francois Bayrou warned MPs in Paris not to introduce a wealth tax as part of efforts to cut the country’s deficit, citing the exodus of rich foreigners from Britain after non-dom changes here. Bayrou’s government collapsed after failing to pass an austerity budget aimed at reducing France’s €44bn deficit. With rising social discontent and calls for action, pressure mounts on President Emmanuel Macron to either call snap elections or resign.

Small businesses brace for budget blow

Daily Express

Small business owners are increasingly concerned that the upcoming Autumn Budget, scheduled for November 26, may adversely affect their growth and finances. Key worries include potential increases in national insurance, VAT, and income tax, which could hinder expansion. Joanna Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance, said: “Small businesses want support to power their growth plans forward.” Research shows that 84% of small businesses now prioritise the UK market for growth, a significant rise from 64% in 2017, reflecting a shift away from international expansion.

Haigh calls for Reeves to cut reliance on OBR

Louise Haigh, a leading Labour backbencher, has sharply criticised Rachel Reeves for her “excessive deference” to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). In an article for the New Statesman, Haigh argued that the Chancellor should revise the OBR’s remit to better account for child poverty and progressive taxation. She also called for reform of the Bank of England’s quantitative tightening programme and for a reduction in interest paid to banks on reserves held at the central bank.

TAX

Badenoch warns of tax doom loop

Daily Express

Kemi Badenoch will today accuse Rachel Reeves of creating a “tax doom loop” that leaves households £1,700 poorer. In a speech, she will highlight the Government’s deficit, projected to double from £16.3bn to over £32bn in five years. The Tory leader will urge Sir Keir Starmer to collaborate on reducing the £300bn welfare bill, stating: “If he is serious about cutting spending… we will help him in the national interest.” She will go on to warn that Labour’s economic policies threaten essential services and calls for a reset in the relationship with businesses to foster growth.

EMPLOYMENT

UK hiring intentions plummet

The Daily Telegraph

The UK has experienced the steepest decline in hiring intentions among 20 European countries, according to ManpowerGroup UK. Only 41% of employers planned to hire last year, but that optimism has dwindled, with the gap between hiring and firing intentions now at just 11%. Petra Tagg, director of ManpowerGroup UK, stated: “It’s a tough outlook for the UK at the moment.” Tagg went on to warn that employers may turn to automation instead of hiring new staff.

Sick days hit 15-year high

The Times

Sick leave among British workers has reached its highest level in over 15 years, with employees taking an average of nearly two weeks off per year, up from just over one week pre-pandemic. The increase is linked to an ageing workforce and a rise in long-term health conditions, particularly mental health issues causing extended absences. The CIPD and Simplyhealth are urging employers to foster supportive cultures, offer flexible working, and provide health services to help staff stay in work. The survey also found that many employers are taking action, with 66% offering occupational sick pay and 69% providing occupational health schemes.

INVESTMENT

UK infrastructure financing set for record high

UK infrastructure financing is set to reach a record high this year, driven by investor competition and government-backed projects. Infralogic reports that £28.13bn of debt was issued in the first eight months, with projections suggesting at least £42.5bn by the end of 2025. Jessamy Gallagher, co-head of energy and real assets at Freshfields, noted a significant increase in deal activity, particularly in energy transition and digital projects. The Government’s commitment to private finance and recent planning reforms have further boosted investor confidence, with £725bn earmarked for infrastructure spending.

ECONOMY

HSBC warns of delayed rate cuts

Daily Mail

HSBC predicts that the Bank of England (BoE) will not reduce interest rates until April 2026 due to concerns about rising inflation. The bank noted that price increases in the UK are more severe than in other Western economies, with inflation currently at 3.8% and expected to reach 4% later this year. BoE governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, saying last week: “There is considerably more doubt” about the timing of any reductions.

CORPORATE

Ofgem pays £4m a year for offices

The Daily Telegraph

Ofgem, the energy regulator, spent nearly £4m on its London office last year, despite a work-from-home policy. The Canary Wharf office costs £1.9m in rent and £1.8m for services, averaging over £10,000 daily. Only 204 of 1,226 staff attended the office on average. William Yarwood from the TaxPayers’ Alliance stated: “Taxpayers are sick of working their socks off while quangocrats work from their beds.” Ofgem has faced criticism for its regulation failures, including a £2.7bn bill from the collapse of energy suppliers. An Ofgem spokesman said they are reviewing office space for efficiency.

AND FINALLY …

Firms on first name terms

Analysis by the Sunday Telegraph shows that 40% of consumer firms now address customers using only their first names, while more than a third of firms write ‘Hello’ rather than ‘Dear’ to their customers. Several companies say they change how they address customers depending on the tone or purpose of the letter. Martyn James, a consumer rights expert, said the changes reflect a new, informal email culture.

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