High street banks’ lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) slowed in the third quarter of 2025, according to UK Finance, reaching £4.2bn. Year-on-year growth dropped to 6.4%, down from 8.3% in the previous quarter and 14% in Q1. This marks the slowest growth since banks resumed lending to SMEs in early 2024. UK Finance noted a “wobble in already subdued business sentiment in the run up to the Budget,” adding that this was “likely linked to concerns that businesses would again be called upon to plug a hole in the public finances.” Gary Greenwood, equity analyst at Shore Capital, commented: “The Chancellor will likely want to see the banks pursuing more aggressive lending policies to support economic growth.”

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has warned that tax rises are negatively impacting jobs and economic growth. The CBI slightly upgraded its GDP forecasts for this year and 2026, but attributed this to temporary public sector spending, funded by future tax increases. Chief economist Louise Hellem said: “The momentum that we saw early in 2025 has clearly faded through the year.” She emphasised the need for more decisive action to enhance business investment and competitiveness, citing high energy costs and a complicated tax regime as significant barriers.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) plans to implement a targeted support programme that will benefit over 18m savers by providing tailored investment advice. This initiative will help people make better-informed decisions over their investments and pensions, while also encouraging investment in productive sectors of the economy. Consumers will be able to request advice without a comprehensive assessment of their financial needs. Sarah Pritchard, FCA’s deputy chief executive, said targeted support “will be game changing.” This comes with FCA data highlighting the low investment appetite among some savers, with it found that 7m UK savers with more than £10,000 in savings have over 75% of this in cash. Research from EY shows that nearly a third of people at or nearing retirement age have never sought financial advice.

Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury Select Committee, has criticised Chancellor Rachel Reeves for a recent U-turn on income tax. Calling the decision a “glaring error,” Dame Meg said that the Government changing its mind of increasing income tax rates after reports had suggested the hike was coming “left everyone either confused or annoyed.” She added that while Treasury “pitch-rolling” – where the media and businesses are given insight on probable major changes to tax and spending – was a valid way to avoid market volatility, Government activity in the build-up to the Budget was “more akin to throwing several grenades on to the pitch.”

HMRC has launched a new reward scheme for whistleblowers, offering higher payouts to encourage reporting of unpaid tax. Senior officials believe this could lead to the recovery of significant amounts of unpaid tax. However, the scheme is based on an untested hypothesis and raises concerns about the risks for informants, including potential professional blacklisting. Nick Barnard, a partner at law firm Corker Binning, noted that the scheme’s success is uncertain and could lead to questions about HMRC’s resource allocation if it fails. The scheme, he warns, “is not a guaranteed win.”

The Treasury anticipates a significant increase in capital gains tax revenue, projected at £144bn, as more investors and second home owners sell their properties. This forecast comes from documents released with the Budget. The OBR predicts £114bn in CGT revenue between now and 2029/30, £6bn more than earlier estimates, rising to £143.8bn by 2030/31. CGT receipts for this year were also revised up by £600m to £20.3bn, largely due to a surge of investors selling assets in 2024/25.

S&U, a London-listed bank, has criticised Rachel Reeves’ recent Budget, describing it as “chaotic and monumentally mishandled.” S&U said the policies set out by the Chancellor had triggered a “dampening effect on consumer confidence.” With the Office for Budget Responsibility having cut growth forecasts every year from 2026 to the end of the Parliament after warning that the measures would do little to drive growth, S&U said: “Ironically, a happy consequence now appears to be a dawning realisation within the Treasury and the Financial Conduct Authority that without growth and greater access to credit, consumer satisfaction and protection are pretty hypothetical.”

The Commons Treasury Select Committee has initiated an inquiry into the performance and future Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The committee will gather evidence until the end of next month, focusing on the OBR’s forecasting accuracy and its relationship with the Government. Dame Meg Hillier, chairwoman of the committee, said: “What my committee intends to do is have an honest conversation about what the watchdog does well and where it needs to do better,” adding that the inquiry would not be a “stick to beat the OBR with.” This follows the resignation of OBR chair Richard Hughes, who stepped down following the accidental publication of the OBR’s assessment of the Budget.

A report by PwC forecasts that UK consumers will spend £24.6bn on Christmas this year, a 3.5% increase from last year. The average adult’s spending is expected to rise from £449 to £461. While 15% of shoppers plan to spend more, 14% expect to cut back. Younger shoppers, particularly those aged 18 to 24, are projected to spend the most, averaging £541.