OUTLOOK
Insolvency rates remain alarmingly high

The Times

Insolvency activities in the UK reached 28,616 in 2024, according to R3‘s Annual Business Health report. This figure, while slightly lower than in 2023, remains significantly above pre-pandemic levels. The construction sector suffered the most, with 4,584 cases, despite a 6% decrease from the previous year. Other sectors also reported increases, including wholesale and retail with 4,124 cases, and food services and accommodation at 3,831 cases. R3 stated: “The financial pressure on businesses continues to be intense.”

Dividends surge in Q4 2025

City AM

UK dividends increased by 1.3% in Q4 2025, reaching £14.3bn, according to Computershare’s latest dividend monitor. Regular dividends rose to £13.9bn, up 2.1% on a constant currency basis. The growth stemmed from better-than-expected payouts in the energy, consumer goods, and property sectors. Mark Cleland, CEO of Issuer Services UK at Computershare, noted: “Dividend payouts have still not regained pre-pandemic highs.” Despite the increase, total dividends for the year fell by 0.9% to £87.5bn, slightly above forecasts.

Banks delay interest rate cut predictions

City AM

City banks have revised their forecasts for the Bank of England’s next interest rate cut, now expected in March instead of February. UBS economist Anna Titareva noted that inflation rose to 3.4% in December 2025, influencing this decision. She said: “Our new call assumes that after a pause next week, the Bank will cut again by 25 basis points to 3.5% on 19 March.” Analysts from Morgan Stanley echoed this sentiment, while opinions vary on the number of cuts expected this year, with some predicting one and others forecasting three as inflation trends downwards.

EMPLOYMENT
AI job losses loom, warns Kendall

The Guardian

UK Technology Secretary Liz Kendall has announced plans to train up to 10m Britons in AI skills by 2030. She acknowledged that AI will lead to job losses, but stressed that new jobs will emerge. Kendall aims to make Britain the fastest AI adopter in the G7 and highlighted the need for a workforce ready for change. She described the initiative as the largest upskilling effort since the Open University. The Government is also collaborating with US AI firms to develop tools for public services.

Young Londoners face record unemployment

London Evening Standard

Unemployment among Londoners aged 16 to 24 has reached a nine-year high, with an average rate of 18.6% as of September. This represents an increase of 11,000 jobless individuals in the past year, totalling 88,000. Employment for this age group fell to 383,000, a decline of 4.25%. Dylan Law, the Green Party’s Deputy Mayoral candidate in Hackney, said: “Behind the statistics, young people are struggling because the system is stacked against them.” Overall, London’s unemployment rate has risen to 7.2%, the highest in the UK.

CORPORATE
C-suite leaders face AI growth dilemma

City AM

The Managing Partners Forum Winter 2025 Quarterly study reveals C-suite leaders in professional services firms are increasingly concerned about AI, cash flow, and staff motivation. While all firms surveyed have adopted Generative AI, only 68% believe it will enhance market share, a significant drop from 96% in July. Financial issues dominate, with 64% prioritising cash flow. Leaders express disappointment with Labour’s latest Budget, saying high taxes were demotivating for employees and a barrier to growth.

TRADE
UK agriculture faces £810m cliff edge

The Guardian

Industry groups warn that aligning UK agriculture standards with the EU without a transition period could cost businesses up to £810m annually. David Bench, chief executive of Croplife, stated: “If we do not have a transition period, it would have very damaging consequences.” The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) highlighted that British products could become unsellable in the EU due to differing regulations on pesticides. The parliamentary trade select committee noted that extra red tape has already cost the UK £8.4bn, with food and drink trade down 24% over five years.

AND FINALLY …
Bank of England faces backlash over printer criteria

City AM

The Bank of England is under scrutiny for its new banknote printing contract, which mandates compliance with ESG and diversity standards. Shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith commented: “When the UK economy is expected to grow slower than Greece, Albania or Mexico this year, the Bank of England shouldn’t be worrying about finding a ‘woke’ banknote printer.” The £900m contract requires applicants to meet strict criteria, with assessments based on a pass or fail system. Concerns about the impact of these requirements on costs and competition have also been raised.


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