Today’s dose of insights, trends, and updates from the world of business and finance.
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Thursday, 7th November 2024
OUTLOOK
Trump tariffs leave Chancellor in a tight spot
Rachel Reeves has said she will make “strong representations” to the incoming Trump administration amid fears within the Labour Government that tariffs imposed by the US will hurt UK growth. President Trump has pledged to impose 10% tariffs on all products imported into the US and 60% tariffs on imports from China as part of moves to restore US manufacturing. The UK exported £60bn of goods to the US last year and the prospect of tariffs on that has already prompted Goldman Sachs to downgrade UK growth from 1.6% to 1.4% for next year. European growth is also expected to be hit while commodities prices fell slightly yesterday on the expectation of lower growth. The Labour leadership will have to move quickly to get on side with the Trump administration in light of anti-Trump remarks that were previously posted on social media by David Lammy. The UK Foreign Secretary called Trump a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” and a “profound threat to the international order”. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch suggested Sir Keir Starmer apologise while Nigel Farage warned that Britain must “roll out the red carpet” for Mr Trump to repair the damage. Meanwhile, Juliet Samuel points out in the Times that Joe Biden’s green subsidies probably did more damage to UK business that Trump’s tariffs will.
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Risks of cost inflation hit housebuilders
The Chancellor’s plans to increase employer National Insurance contributions as well as regulations around fire safety for new homes will likely drive up costs for Persimmon, the housebuilder has warned, wiping out gains its shares made after the Labour Government was elected. The prospect of rising cost inflation also hit Bellway, Berkeley Group, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Redrow.
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EMPLOYMENT
AI hiring tools face scrutiny
The Times
Job applicants are increasingly facing bias due to the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in recruitment, as highlighted by the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) in its audit titled AI tools in recruitment. The ICO found that some AI tools allowed recruiters to filter candidates based on gender and ethnicity, raising concerns about reinforcing poor hiring practices. Ian Hulme, the ICO’s director of regulatory assurance, stated: “AI can bring real benefits to the hiring process, but it also introduces new risks that may cause harm to jobseekers if not used lawfully and fairly.”
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Money stress cripples workforce performance
I
According to a survey conducted by FinancialEducation.co.uk, nearly half of workers (48%) report that financial stress negatively impacts their job performance. The survey revealed that over 61% of employees have taken time off work due to financial issues, with many suffering from mental health problems. Saq Hussain, founder of FinancialEducation and strategic adviser to EY Parthenon, stated: “The cost of living puts immense pressure on people, and for many, this spills over into their work lives.” He stressed the importance of financial education, suggesting it could help employees manage their finances better and improve their focus at work.
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TAX
Chancellor promises not to increase taxes again in spring budget
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has committed not to increase taxes at Labour’s next budget, stating: “We’re not going to be coming back with more tax increases, or indeed more borrowing.” She told MPs on the Commons Treasury select committee: “We’ve now set the envelope for spending for this parliament.” Following the announcement of the largest tax rise package in three decades, she stressed the need for the Government to “live within the means” of her spending plans.
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REGULATION
SFO given extra cash to boost fight against financial crime
The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has been allocated an additional £9.3m to enhance its case management and evidence handling capabilities, as part of the Government’s initiative to combat financial crime.
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Claims groups must pay for taking cases to ombudsman
Claims management companies will now incur fees to present complaints to the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS), following the Government’s decision to reject industry appeals against this move.
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BREXIT
Single Trade Window delayed until 2026
The Guardian
The UK Government has announced a significant delay in the implementation of the Single Trade Window (STW), a key component of its post-Brexit border strategy, now paused until at least 2026 due to cost concerns. James Murray, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, stated: “In the context of financial challenges, the Government … [is] pausing delivery of the UK single trade window in 2025-26.” The STW aimed to streamline the import and export process by creating a single digital platform for documentation, but has faced numerous challenges, as highlighted by the National Audit Office (NAO), which warned of “several major challenges” and an overly optimistic timeline. The delay could potentially reduce benefits by £866m over ten years, prompting calls for closer collaboration with industry to ensure effective digital solutions.
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CORPORATE
Accountants fail to dominate legal scene
The Times
Once seen as the future of corporate legal services, accountancy firms, particularly the “big four” – KPMG, PwC, Deloitte, and EY – have struggled to make a significant impact in the legal sector. Research from The Lawyer reveals that the market share of accountants in legal services has declined from 1% in 2002 to just 0.7% today. PwC’s law firm branch, which was expected to generate £100m, currently only achieves around £77m annually, highlighting the challenges faced by these firms in the legal landscape.
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ECONOMY
Construction sector growth slows
The i City A.M.
The construction sector experienced a significant slowdown in October, as indicated by the S&P Global Market Intelligence’s construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which fell to 54.3 from 57.2 in September. The civil engineering subsector performed best, driven by renewable energy infrastructure growth. However, housebuilding entered contraction for the first time since June due to “government policy uncertainty, fragile consumer confidence and elevated borrowing costs.” Despite this, other indicators suggest a gradual recovery in the housing market, with mortgage approvals reaching their highest level since August 2022.
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